How Dave McCormick won 2024's closest Senate race — and how he'll shape the GOP in Washington.

For months, Dave McCormick knew a victory in Pennsylvania’s critical Senate race was far from certain.

Public polling over the summer had him trailing Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, a three-term incumbent and state political scion, by as many as 14 percentage points. McCormick’s own polling, he told NBC News, had him down nearly 10 points, too.

But, said McCormick, Pennsylvania’s senator-elect, he could feel the momentum shifting on the ground, particularly when he campaigned before traditionally Democratic constituencies, including the state’s large Jewish community and Hispanic enclaves in the Lehigh Valley, and with tradesmen in the state.

By Allan Smith

It was an Italian festival he attended late this summer in Casey’s hometown, Scranton, that stood out most, though. He and his wife started the day by attending a church service.

“Went to the service in the morning, and the entire service is in Italian,” McCormick said, adding: “And then you walk outside into the main square of Scranton, and there’s all these Italian food stands, and it’s full. And a lot of people would come up to me and say: ‘Hey, we got you. We’re with you.’

“And this is Lackawanna County, which is Bob Casey’s literal backyard,” he added. “And I said: ‘Man, I can feel it. I got some energy here.’”